Election Analysis
Bob McDonnell steers the GOP back to the sensible center and wins bigGOP Sets New Course with Return to the Moderate Middle
By Clayton Roberts
President, Virginia FREE
Virginia Republicans recaptured the political middle Tuesday, assisted by Bob McDonnell’s strong centrist campaign and adherence to a positive message of economic recovery and job creation. Democrats meanwhile, could not overcome mounting anxiety over national Democratic policies in Washington, or a lackluster campaign by Creigh Deeds that utterly failed to energize even the party’s base.
McDonnell never veered from an upbeat focus on free enterprise, jobs and Virginia’s entrepreneurial spirit. His message was strong and simple. Jobs. The economy. It resonated with voters across the state; especially among independents who aren’t sure they like the change they voted for last November. He carried all but two of the state’s 11 congressional districts and won in Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties – all key demographic areas that supported Democrats in recent races and contributed mightily to wins by Mark Warner, Jim Webb and Tim Kaine.
Virginia is a highly competitive, fiscally conservative two-party state with a stubborn independent streak. Public Policy Polling shows Virginia’s electorate evenly divided among Democrats, Republicans and independents, with about a third of likely voters identifying with each category. Hungry for a win, Republicans were highly motivated. Independents, distressed by the economy and concerned about taxes and runaway federal spending, broke to McDonnell by nearly 2-to-1. Democrats stayed home. Gone was the army of half a million young and first-time voters so captivated by Obama just one year ago. They had a personal, almost apolitical relationship with Obama. It didn’t translate to Deeds.
Democrats in the House of Delegates suffered severe collateral damage, losing at least 7 incumbents to insurgent Republican candidates. Four Republicans thought to be vulnerable cruised to re-election by comfortable margins. Only one Republican lost: Phil Hamilton of Newport News who is under federal investigation for alleged corruption. The GOP is now fortified in the House, claiming 59 or 60 votes depending on the final outcome of a recount. If the new Governor can lure just one or two Senate Democrats to his administration, Republicans could suddenly control state government from top to bottom. Just in time for redistricting.
Tuesday’s balloting presents a stunning reversal of fortunes from recent Virginia election cycles.
Since 2003, Virginia Democrats have:
· Won 2 consecutive races for Governor
· Captured a majority of the state’s congressional delegation
· Won both U.S. Senate seats
· Taken control of the state Senate
· Carried Virginia in a Presidential race for the first time since 1964
· Gained 11 seats in the House of Delegates
Momentum has returned to Republicans much faster and stronger than many anticipated. The pendulum is now swinging back to the right, away from national Democratic policies on energy, health care, taxes and organized labor. Among the all-important moderate middle, there is a prevailing anti-Democrat mood that heavily influenced balloting in Virginia this week and presages huge losses for the President’s party in mid-term congressional elections next year. At least three Virginia Congressmen should be very nervous: Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, and Gerry Connolly. All three are freshmen Democrats elected last year in districts swept by the GOP ticket by as much as 62%.
McDonnell, to his credit, promised the day after the election that he will govern from the middle; that he will stick to moderate themes and issues he campaigned on, echoing his disciplined focus throughout the campaign. Smart. Very smart.
Because this election is not a Republican realignment. It is not a broad mandate for change. It is a reaction to what’s happening in Washington and a call for pragmatic, responsible governance and a tight fist on the purse strings. It is a course correction following a long string of Democratic wins. It is a return to the middle and to a place of comfort for Virginians. As former Delegate Barnie Day observed, Virginia made “a graceful veer, Bob McDonnell at the wheel, to familiarity, to where it has always been - about two clicks right-of-center.”
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